Daily Market Outlook, November 14, 2022

“Markets open the week on a slightly more cautious footing, comments from Fed member Waller cooled risk appetite as the Fed policymaker suggested that equity markets had over reacted to the inflation print as interest rates still had further to go to combat inflationary pressures. The outlier in Asian markets is seen in Chinese equities, which have opened the week with a positive tilt following announcements with respect to Covid restrictions and support for the ailing property sector. In the trading week ahead markets will be seeking further clarity on policy from major central banks, today's focus in the Eurozone will be on speeches from Nagel, Guindos, Centeno and Panetta, in the US it will be Fed speakers Williams and Brainard. The data slate is scant today, with September Industrial production the main focus in the Eurozone, with markets looking for a small gain of 0.7% month over month. In the UK markets eagerly await the much lauded Autumn statement, with the UK Chancellor Hunt making the media rounds over the weekend warning of ‘difficult decisions’ ahead in order to plug the fiscal holes in the national finances. For further insights into the fundaments and trading dynamics for the week ahead please review my Weekly Market Outlook video...”

Overnight Headlines

Dollar Steadies As Fed Cautions On Inflation - RTRS
FTX Collapse Being Scrutinised By Bahamas Authorities - RTRS
Emboldened Xi Jinping Steps Back On To World Stage With G20 Summit - FT
China Dials Back Property Restrictions In Bid To Reverse Economic Slide - WSJ
China’s Looser Covid Rules Face First Test With Surging Outbreak - BBG
Fed’s Waller Says There’s A ‘Ways To Go’ Before Rate Hikes Done - BBG
Fed Faces Tough Task Deciding When To Stop Raising Rates, Daly Warns - FT
Biden Rallies Yoon, Kishida As North Korean Missile Threat Grows - BBG
US Tries To Enlist Allies In Assault On China’s Chip Industry - FT
White House Official: Biden To Make Clear US Does Not Seek Conflict With China - RTRS
Some Russia Sanctions Could Extend Beyond Ukraine War’s End, Yellen Says - WSJ
Yellen Acknowledges ‘Spillovers’ From US Rates, Strong Dollar - BBG
US House Majority Undecided As Democrats Keep Senate Control - WSJ
Democratic Congressional Leaders Vow To Address US Debt Limit - RTRS
Pelosi Urges Debt-Ceiling Vote In Lame-Duck Session To Avoid Risk - BBG
IMF Chief Warns On US-China Rivalry, Calls Trump-Era Tariffs Counterproductive - RTRS

Technical & Trade Views

SP500 Bias: Bullish Above Bearish Below 3945

Technicals

Primary support is 3945
Primary upside objective is 4120
Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 4050
Failure below 3935 opens a test of 3900
20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

EURUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 1.0250

1.0284 Target Achieved, New Pattern Emerging

Technicals

Primary support is 1.0250
Primary upside objective is 1.0466
Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 1.0350
Failure below 1.02 opens a test of 1.0090
20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish
Today’s New York Cut Option Expiries: 1.0200 (483mln), 1.0300 (258mln), 1.0370 (361mln), 1.0390 (242mln)