The extremely low levels of FX implied volatility have led to hedging costs through options reaching long-term lows, and in some instances even multi-year lows. Although current pricing indicates a lack of realized and anticipated volatility, it may also reflect a certain level of market complacency. The recent U.S. government shutdown has eliminated immediate data-driven volatility risks but has increased uncertainty regarding the outlook for monetary policy. Traders are already seeking alternative sources of information, evidenced by significant market reactions to this week’s U.S. ADP jobs report and the less familiar Revelio Labs data. These reactions underscore the market's sensitivity to any indications regarding the economic trajectory. Official data will eventually come back, likely reinstating its typical impact on FX, but until then, traders are operating with limited visibility and relying on secondary indicators. The upcoming leadership election of Japan's LDP has garnered attention for weeks due to its potential influence on future policy direction. Initially, this event posed a considerable volatility risk premium, but that has gradually diminished. With FX markets remaining relatively calm, the pricing of short-dated options now implies that event risk may be undervalued, raising doubts about whether the market is overly complacent. The 1-month tenor has performed slightly better than other expiration dates since incorporating significant policy announcements from the U.S. and Japan at the end of October. However, the initial increase in implied volatility, spurred by expectations of heightened realized volatility surrounding those announcements, has nearly vanished. With implied volatility and option premiums reduced, the reward-to-risk dynamic increasingly favors buyers – the focus now shifts to timing. The low entry costs offer appealing asymmetry, particularly if macroeconomic catalysts re-emerge or if shifts in positioning provoke new volatility.