SP500 LDN TRADING UPDATE 10/10/25
WEEKLY & DAILY LEVELS
***QUOTING ES1! CASH US500 EQUIVALENT LEVELS SUBTRACT ~60 POINTS***
WEEKLY BULL BEAR ZONE 6720/10
WEEKLY RANGE RES 6791 SUP 6640
OCT EOM STRADDLE 6602/6891
OCT MOPEX 6842/6487
DEC QOPEX 6303/7025
DAILY VWAP BULLISH 6749
WEEKLY VWAP BULLISH 6655
DAILY MARKET STRUCTURE – BALANCE 6741/6803
DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE 6770/60
DAILY RANGE RES 6837 SUP 6722
2 SIGMA RES 6895 SUP 6664
VIX DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE 17.5
TRADES & TARGETS
LONG ON TEST/REJECT DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE TARGET DAILY RANGE RES
SHORT ON TEST REJECT DAILY RANGE RES TARGET DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE
(I FADE TESTS OF 2 SIGMA LEVELS ESPECIALLY INTO THE FINAL HOUR OF THE NY CASH SESSION AS 90% OF THE TIME WHEN TESTED THE MARKET WILL CLOSE AT OR BELOW THESE LEVELS)
GOLDMAN SACHS TRADING DESK VIEWS
U.S. EQUITIES UPDATE: MUNDANE
S&P -28bps closing @ 6,735 w/ a of MOC +$5.5b to BUY. NDX -15bps @ 25,098. R2K -61bps @
2,468 and Dow -52bps @ 46,358. 20.7b shares traded across all US equity exchanges vs ytd daily avg
of 16.8bn shares. VIX +80bps @ 16.43, WTI Crude -177bps @ $61.44, US 10YR +2bps @ 4.14%, gold
-176bps @ 3,990, dxy +47bps @ 99.38 and Bitcoin -152bps @ $121,044.
Mundane session with equities drifting lower amidst sparse news to trade on. The broader market narrative remains the same. Retail challenging. Govt shutdown lingers and doesn’t seem to be nearing a resolution. Narrow breadth with strength across NVDA/META/AMZN masked broader weakness at the index level (~75% of S&P names finished lower) ... worst thematic of the day was cyclicals, commod sensitives (debasement trades topical), and housing exposed all trading down 2-3%. Some choppy data in home improvement in September (like the rest of retail) has also not helped.
On the singles front, COST traded up +3% on still solid retail trends (providing relief post -7% pullback since earnings) + PEP and DAL kicked off earnings, both acted well on largely inline to slightly better earnings. Once again, the earnings bar is low and should be cleared for the 9th consecutive quarter – our portfolio team points out that both sales growth estimates (consensus for4% in 3Q) and Mag7 estimates (estimated growth rate of 14% in 3Q is half the pace realized in Q1 and Q2) are too conservative.
Our floor was a 4 on a 1-10 scale in terms of overall activity levels. Flow wise, our floor finished close to flat with a small net sell skew. LO's finished ~3% better to buy, with macro products + tech the standouts, vs supply from the group across comms svcs and fins. HFs finished ~2% net sellers. Tech the standout with ~$750m in net supply vs staples which stood out as net bought on the day from the group.
Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% and 72% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Futures and Options: Trading futures and options on margin carries a high degree of risk and may result in losses exceeding your initial investment. These products are not suitable for all investors. Ensure you fully understand the risks and take appropriate care to manage your risk.
Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!