Gold Stabilising on Thursday

Gold prices are looking a little more stable today following a sharp bounce off yesterday’s lows. The market had initially broken lower in response to a surge in oil prices and a firmer US Dollar amidst reports of fresh military exchanges between the US and Iran. Indeed, Trump’s declaration yesterday that the ceasefire was not voided, and threats of more severe attacks on Iran, caused a lot of uncertainty among traders. For gold, the outlook turned more bearish with risks of a sharp jump higher in oil and USD seen if the US and Iran return to all out war. However, those initial moves have since reversed after Trump posted online overnight saying that Iran had sought out a new agreement, re-establishing peace hopes.

News-flow Risks

For now, the focus is on incoming headlines: if both sides step down form further attacks and we hear news of any resumed peace talks, this should help lift risk appetite and gold prices simultaneously as USD and oil sell off. However, if tensions flare again and sentiment deteriorates, gold prices could come under heavy selling pressure if we see a fresh spike in oil prices and USD.

Technical Views

Gold

For now, the market is fighting to get back above the 4.092.60 from which bulls can hope to establish a base to advance again towards the 4,389.245 level. Plenty of bearish trend lien resistance overhead blocking the way, however, and if we do turn lower again, 3,898.03 will be the deeper support level to watch.