S&P500 Daily Action Areas & Price Targets 22/9/26

***QUOTING ES1!(Z CONTRACT LEVLES) FOR CASH US500 EQUIVALENT LEVELS, SUBTRACT POINT DIFFERENCE***

MONTHLY-WEEKLY& DAILY LEVELS

MONTHLY BULL BEAR ZONE 7440/7400

MONTHLY RANGE RES 7882 SUP 7490

WEEKLY BULL BEAR ZONE 7690/80

WEEKLY RANGE RES 7826/7798 SUP 7621/27

DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE 7785/95

GLOBEX RANGE SUP 7815 RES 7854

2 SIGMA RANGE SUP 7796 RES 7873

GAMMA FLIP 7777

DELTA FLIP 7740

CALL WALLS 7832/7805

PUT WALLS 7733 - 7763

UNFILLED GAPS 7541 - 7712

DAILY STRUCTURE - OTFH - 7758

WEEKLY STRUCTURE - OTFL - 7717

MONTHLY STRUCTURE - OTFH - 7542

VIX BULL BEAR ZONE 17.7  

VVIX / VIX 5.0–6.0:Tension Building (Current: 5.77) — VIX stays low (~14.8), smart money likely paying for tail-risk hedges on volatility.

PRIMARY TRADES & TARGETS 

LONG ON REJECT/RECLAIM  DBBZ TARGET DAILY RANGE RES

***ADDITIONAL SETUPS & TARGETS HIGHLIGHTED ON THE CHARTS***

(I FADE TESTS OF 2 SIGMA LEVELS ESPECIALLY INTO THE FINAL HOUR OF THE NY CASH SESSION AS 90% OF THE TIME WHEN TESTED THE MARKET WILL CLOSE ABOVE OR BELOW THESE LEVELS)

SPX PUT/CALL RATIO 0.81 (The numbers reflect options traded during the current session.) A put-call ratio below 0.7 is generally considered bullish, and a put-call ratio above 1.0 is generally considered bearish.

JHEQX Q3 Collar Short Call Cap: ~7,750 – 7,900 - Long Put Strike: ~7,050 – 7,100 (approx. 5% downside protection) Short Put Strike: ~5,950

DEC2025 OPEX to DEC2026 OPEX is 945 points giving us a range of [5889,7779]

Notes On Structure Implications

Balance: This refers to a market condition where prices move within a defined range, reflecting uncertainty as participants await further market-generated information. Our approach to balance includes favouring fade trades at the range extremes (highs/lows) while preparing for potential breakout scenarios if the balance shifts.

One-Time Framing Higher (OTFH): This represents a market trend where each successive bar forms a higher low, signalling a strong and consistent upward movement.

One-Time Framing Lower (OTFL): This describes a market trend where each successive bar forms a lower high, indicating a pronounced and steady downward movement.

GOLDMAN SACHS FICC & EQUITY TRADING DESK VIEWS

THE TAKE: GEOPOLITICAL OPTIMISM & META MUSE RALLY DRIVE BENCHMARKS HIGHER

US equities kicked off the week with a powerful rally—the S&P 500 recorded its best single-day performance since August 4 (+149 bps to 7,764), while the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 surged +283 bps to 30,482. The advance was fueled by geopolitical tailwinds ahead of the UN General Assembly, including constructive bilateral talks leading into the upcoming Trump-Xi summit on Thursday (President Xi’s first US visit since 2023).

Energy prices eased sharply (WTI Crude -4.83% to $95.46/bbl) after President Trump expressed openness to diplomatic resolution regarding Houthi conflicts. Furthermore, Middle East supply logistics continue to recover, with Crude and LNG shipments through the Strait of Hormuz reaching a 6-month high. Treasury yields moderated slightly (US 10-Year -4.7 bps to 4.949%).

MARKET SUMMARY & ASSET BREAKDOWN

S&P 500 (SPX): Closed at 7,764.00 (+1.49%) | Best session since Aug 4 | MOC $2.3B to SELL | Remaining weekly straddle priced at 90 bps

Nasdaq-100 (NDX): Closed at 30,482.00 (+2.83%) | Led by mega-cap Tech and CPU/Inference plays

Russell 2000 (RUT): Closed at 2,881.00 (+0.74%) | Small-caps joined rally as yields eased below 4.95%

Dow Jones (DJI): Closed at 52,050.00 (+0.71%) | Lagged tech-heavy benchmarks

US 10-Year Treasury: Yield at 4.949% (-4.7 bps) | Eased off recent 5.0%+ cycle highs

WTI Crude: Price at $95.46 (-4.83%) | Dropped below $96 as Hormuz traffic hit 6-month highs and diplomacy signals emerged

Gold: Price at $4,342.00 (-0.82%) | Mild pull-back as broad risk-on sentiment took hold

Bitcoin: Price at $86,659.00 (+6.89%) | Strong crypto rally reflecting broad risk-on liquidity surge

CBOE VIX: Closed at 14.87 (+6 bps) | Spot-up/vol-up correlation; short-dated upside calls actively chased

SINGLE STOCK & FACTOR SPOTLIGHT

Meta Platforms (META): Surged +11.43% (best single-day gain in 17 months; +17% over past 9 sessions), accounting for ~15% of the total S&P 500 advance. The move was driven by surging Meta Muse adoption, which hit #1 on the US App Store with ~73,000 daily downloads.

CPU & Inference Infrastructure Rally: Accelerating AI inference demand triggered massive synchronized gains across CPU designers and suppliers:

ARM Holdings (ARM): +17.16%

Intel (INTC): +12.17%

AMD (AMD): +9.95%

INSTITUTIONAL FLOWS & DERIVATIVES COLOR

Desk Activity (-22 bps to SALE / 3/10 Rating):

Asset Managers (LOs): Net buyers of +$779M (demand in Tech, Communication Services, and macro products vs. supply in Staples and Discretionary).

Hedge Funds: Net sellers of -$974M (supply in macro products and Energy vs. demand in Comm Services, Tech, and Financials).

Derivatives & Volatility Dynamics:

S&P Implied Move: Morning 30 bps implied move overrealized by 5x during the intraday push. Short-dated upside calls were actively chased as institutional clients remain under-positioned for upside moves.

IWM Gamma Value: With 2-year implied volatility at multi-year lows, IWM 3-month gamma is sub-5th percentile (5-year lookback), presenting an attractive entry for cheap small-cap convexity.

Dealer Gamma Shift: Dealers moved deeper into a long gamma pocket across +/- 3% bands, stabilizing the market against extreme downside breaks.

INTC Options Flow: GS clients were buyers of 1-month INTC Call Spreads to capture upside as CPU capacity tightens relative to inference demand.