Daily Market Outlook, November 2, 2026

Patrick Munnelly, Partner: Market Strategy, Tickmill Group

Munnelly’s Macro Missive - Tech Stabilises As Oil Relief Lifts Risk Appetite

Global risk assets opened the week on a firmer footing as a sharp retreat in crude prices and Chinese market-support rhetoric helped stem the fallout from Friday’s bruising technology liquidation. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures rebounded at least 0.5% following a volatile session that saw the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunge 7.2%. In Asia, the MSCI regional gauge inched up 0.1%, supported by gains in Seoul and Hong Kong, though desks view the move as a tentative pause in de-risking rather than an all-clear on tech valuations.

The primary macro relief valve came via energy markets. Brent crude slid 3% to $109.87/bbl following reports that the White House favours extending diplomatic avenues with Tehran ahead of the US midterms before considering military escalation. While the pullback moderates the immediate geopolitical risk premium, Brent hovering near $110/bbl remains well above baseline central-bank assumptions, keeping medium-term inflation breakevens elevated. High-beta and hedge assets reflected the stabilisation: Bitcoin bounced toward $80,000 as Binance resumed normalised operations, while spot Gold recovered 0.8% to $3,906/oz.

In Asia, Chinese bourses caught a bid on reports that financial regulators will convene an emergency meeting with major banks and brokerages to roll out capital-market stabilisation measures. However, broader tech sentiment remains in a demanding transitional phase. Disappointing quarterly prints and heavy capex guidance from Alphabet, Amazon, Samsung, and Intel have shifted investor focus squarely from thematic enthusiasm to capital discipline, near-term cash-flow conversion, and data-centre monetisation timelines.

Central banks dominate the weekly tape, headlined by the Bank of England’s policy decision on Thursday. Markets heavily discount a 25 bps hike, taking Bank Rate to 4.0%. The October Decision Maker Panel (DMP) survey encapsulated the MPC's policy bind: realised and expected price growth hovering near 4% mandates policy tightening, even as cooling corporate employment indicators argue against an aggressive forward trajectory. The BoE is expected to deliver a "dovish hike"—tightening rates to anchor inflation credibility while guiding that the terminal rate is near. Meanwhile, post-Budget relief continues to anchor UK gilts, where smaller-than-feared DMO financing revisions and active use of the Short-Term Repo (STR) facility have insulated front-end spreads from acute balance-sheet run-off strain.

Across the G10, policy paths remain highly conditional. The Reserve Bank of Australia faces strong pressure to hike on Tuesday following hot Q3 CPI figures, Sweden's Riksbank leans hawkish for Wednesday, and Norges Bank is expected to hold. In the Eurozone, Wednesday’s flash October CPI (seen sticky near 3.8% y/y) and wage-tracker data will test the market’s pricing of a December ECB hike, even as widening French OAT spreads reflect persistent fiscal and political headwinds.

In the US, Tuesday’s midterm elections stand as the pivotal political catalyst, with markets monitoring the balance of power for implications on tech antitrust scrutiny, trade policy, and next year’s debt-ceiling debate. On the macro calendar, desks face a dense employment gauntlet—spanning JOLTS job openings, ADP, ISM surveys, and Friday's non-farm payrolls. Resilient labor metrics would validate the Fed's higher-for-longer optionality into December, whereas a sharp hiring slowdown could transform the AI valuation reset into broader growth anxiety.

Macro to Micro: Financial markets are mounting a tentative relief bounce, but structural hurdles remain formidable. While crude breaking below $110/bbl and Chinese policy signals provide some tactical leeway, the cost of capital remains historically restrictive. For trading desks, immediate focus centres on semiconductor follow-through, post-midterm US regulatory risks, Brent crude price levels, the BoE’s vote split, and Friday’s US jobs report to determine whether the tech rebound marks a durable bottom or a bear-market reprieve.

Overnight Headlines

  • US Sec Rubio: Trump Seeks Peaceful End To Iran War Amid Strikes Prep

  • OPEC+ Keeps December Oil Production Targets Unchanged

  • Goldman Raises Dec Brent Forecast To $105/Bbl From $90/Bbl

  • Iran’s IRGC: Two Tankers Exploded After Striking Mines In Strait Of Hormuz

  • Gulf States Fear Stronger Iranian Retaliation If US Resumes Military Strikes

  • US Approves $2.1B Sale Of Patriot Missile Interceptors To Ukraine

  • Allies Fear Trump Will Target NATO In Case Of Midterm Loss

  • Germany Falls Short Of Gas Storage Target As Colder Weather Arrives

  • Trump: US And Canada Have Framework For New Trade Agreement

  • France Faces Fiscal Warning As Fitch Revises Rating Outlook To Negative

  • China Plans Meeting To Support Stock Market Amid Market Weakness

  • PBoC Conducts Overnight Reverse Repo As Policy Anchor Shifts

  • S Korea Exports Extend Robust Growth On AI-Fueled Chip Boom

  • Taiwan, Japan Eye Trade Deal Akin To Taipei-London Pact, Sources Say

  • Japan’s FinMin Signals Readiness To Act To Maintain FX Market Stability

  • Bond Investors Sit Out ‘Most Consequential’ US Midterm Election In Years

  • OpenAI Reportedly Cuts Funding Target By $10B Amid AI Market Sell-Off

  • Binance Users Withdraw $3.6B As Exchange Resumes Services Post-Breach

Technical & Trade Views

1 / 1